Six party talks are failing because the DPRK wants to talk directly to the United States about the state of war between the two countries. The DPRK is no longer interested in talking to the other parties because the solutions proposed by Russia, Japan, China, and South Korea to continue pursuing regional economic cooperation do not include removing U.S. military presence from the DPRK's southern border. Kim Jon Il believes that the U.S. is hiding behind the six-party talks to attack the DPRK. This is the major "sticking point" the negotiations. This is why he is trying so hard to build a nuclear weapons program of its own.
European and Asian nations want to build a network of oil & gas pipelines, and railroads that traverse the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (aka North Korea aka DPRK). This network will literally connect Paris France to Shimonoseki, Japan. The network will go through Moscow, Russia; Beijing, China; Pyongyang, North Korea; Seoul, South Korea; Pusan, South Korea; then underwater to Japan. The formal name is the Trans-Korean-Trans-Siberian Project (TKR-TSR Project).
![](http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/407/846/400/Trans%20Siberian%20Railroad.jpg)
![](http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/407/846/400/Trans%20Korean%20Railway.jpg)
Reopening the inter-Korean Railroad provides Russia and China lucrative access to South Korea and will provide economic incentives to rebuild and maintain their dilapidated Siberian Railroads. Also it would finally connect South Korea to Western Europe by land. That land connection would cut the time of transport of goods between Europe and South Korea from 3 weeks by ocean to 1 week by rail. Throughout all of this commerce, North Korea will earn billions of dollars in transit fees. Upon its completion, the Korean Peninsula would become the most important international transportation hub in the far east.
By early 1994 Kim Il Sung was having talks with the U.S. to end the Korean war and reopen the inter-Korean railroad. It had been closed since the Korean War began in 1950. Kim Il Sung had also been discussing the possibility of the TKR-TSR project with Japan, Russia, China, South Korea, and the United States.
Kim Il Sung died in July 1994 and the aforementioned nations finalized a memorandum of understanding with his son Kim Jon Il in October 1994 called "The Agreed Framework". The Agreed Framework commits the U.S. and the DPRK to do the following:
North Korea violated the Agreed Framework almost immediately after it was signed. Heavy fuel oil was diverted its intended purpose and sold in the black market. North Korea continued making counterfeit U.S. currency. IAEA inspections were constantly interrupted by North Korean officials. North Korean submarines were trespassing South Korean coastlines which delayed the construction of the Kumho LWR Site. The DPRK launched a ballistic missile over Japan.
- Cooperate to replace the DPRK’s graphite-moderated nuclear reactors and related facilities with 1000 megawatt light-water reactor (LWR) power plants for producing electricity. 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil will be delivered by the U.S. at no cost to North Korea to facilitate their energy needs during the transition. The U.S., South Korea, and Japan setup the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) to implement the Agreed Framework. The KEDO charter members agreed that South Korea and Japan would pay the $4 billion for the LWR.
- Move toward full normalization of political and economic relations.
- Work together for peace and security on a nuclear free Korean peninsula. DPRK agreed to unannounced inspections of its nuclear program to insure compliance.
- Will work together to strengthen the international nuclear non proliferation regime.
Fearing a breakdown in the TKR-TSR project due to North Korea's non compliance, in October 2000 Secretary of State Madeline Albright (in the Clinton Administration) went to North Korea to reassure Kim Jon Il that the regional partners in the TKR-TSR project remain committed to the Agreed Framework so that the economic cooperation can proceed. There is no record that Albright pressured Kim Jon Il to stop his violations.
![](file:///Users/malicurrington/Documents/Roxio%20Converted%20Items/Il%20Albright%20002.jpg)
![](http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/407/846/320/Il%20Albright%20002.jpg)
Meetings were held in Pyongyang to discuss South Korea's possible supply of electrical power to the North. Talks broke down over demands by North Korean negotiators to tap South Korea's power supply quickly, and to strictly limit South Korean access to North Korea's energy industry. In previous talks, North Korea had offered to have South Korea conduct an energy survey of Pyongyang. South Korean negotiators cited concerns about power sharing costs and said it would need to conduct a more complete study. Seoul also wanted to carry out a study of its own energy industry before deciding how much electricity it could spare. South Korean officials estimate it would take four years and $630 million to build new power lines across the border. As an alternative, Seoul is reportedly considering giving North Korea surplus coal for its thermal plants.In February of 2001, The Bush Administration expressed it dissatisfaction with North Korea's actions. To try to calm Kim Jon Il's paranoia of a U.S. attack, after the attacks on 9/11 the Bush administration wanted to formerly agree with North Korea to do the following:
Kim Jon Il got the offer he wanted but was not willing to complete North Korea's political obligation for getting what he wanted. So by early August of 2003 he pulls North Korea out of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NNPT) believing that by doing so, the regional partners would be more willing to just continues the economic partnership without forcing North Korea to the Agreed Framework.
- Both Koreas, China, and the United States to finally sign a peace treaty to end the 1950-53 Korean war.
- North Korea must pull back 500,000 troops from the DMZ—as the Bush Administration has been loudly demanding;
- North Korea must to open its economy and allow large-scale investment by South Korea and allied nations.
- North Korea must sign agreements regulating transport of people and goods across the Trans-Korean Railway, allowing increased freedom for its citizens.
By late August of 2003 the Six regional parties convened in China to pressure the DPRK to go back to both the NNPT and the Agreed Framework. The DPRK resisted the requests and demanded to speak only to the United States. When the U.S. refused, the DPRK apparently tested a nuclear weapon. Kim Jon Il believes that if he were to "go nuclear" as he apparently did then he can force the United States to negotiate with him directly. Unfortunately, all Kim Jon Il did was further distance the DPRK from the world and increased the possibility that all of the region will be "nuclear tipped"
Until the DPRK set off an apparent explosion (against the wishes of the world - especially China) it was thought that China had considerable leverage over North Korea. China thought that they could convince North Korea that the TKR-TSR would give them the finances to be a more modern independent communist nation. Realizing that it is not the reality, DPRK's action has done more to raise concern of instability on Korean Peninsula and made the fruition of the TKR-TSR less of a reality. No longer is the discussion about the TKR-TSR, it is now about a dictator feverishly pursuing nuclear weapons.
This apparent test has created an added problem. Kim Jon Il knows that China is horrified that if he is deposed, his replacement would be worse than him. So Kim Jon Il took the aggressive posture and "apparently" tested a nuclear bomb. The problem is that he has cut himself from any "regime stabilizing" foreign assistance except the Chinese. Others in the region to consider going nuclear. If Kim Jon Il had not been paranoid and accepted the terms offered by the United States and completed the TSR-TKR, then he would be an economic power player in the world. Now he must be concerned about those in his government who are angered by his actions and are willing to pursue a regime change.
No comments:
Post a Comment