Why North Korea only wants to talk to "U.S."

Six party talks are failing because the DPRK wants to talk directly to the United States about the state of war between the two countries. The DPRK is no longer interested in talking to the other parties because the solutions proposed by Russia, Japan, China, and South Korea to continue pursuing regional economic cooperation do not include removing U.S. military presence from the DPRK's southern border. Kim Jon Il believes that the U.S. is hiding behind the six-party talks to attack the DPRK. This is the major "sticking point" the negotiations. This is why he is trying so hard to build a nuclear weapons program of its own.

European and Asian nations want to build a network of oil & gas pipelines, and railroads that traverse the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (aka North Korea aka DPRK). This network will literally connect Paris France to Shimonoseki, Japan. The network will go through Moscow, Russia; Beijing, China; Pyongyang, North Korea; Seoul, South Korea; Pusan, South Korea; then underwater to Japan. The formal name is the Trans-Korean-Trans-Siberian Project (TKR-TSR Project).

Most of the planning is completed, but there is one huge problem - the United States is technically still at war with the DPRK. The most important access route in the entire TKR-TSR Project is the inter-Korean Rail link which crosses the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). The DMZ is the border of North and South Korea.

Reopening the inter-Korean Railroad provides Russia and China lucrative access to South Korea and will provide economic incentives to rebuild and maintain their dilapidated Siberian Railroads. Also it would finally connect South Korea to Western Europe by land. That land connection would cut the time of transport of goods between Europe and South Korea from 3 weeks by ocean to 1 week by rail. Throughout all of this commerce, North Korea will earn billions of dollars in transit fees. Upon its completion, the Korean Peninsula would become the most important international transportation hub in the far east.

By early 1994 Kim Il Sung was having talks with the U.S. to end the Korean war and reopen the inter-Korean railroad. It had been closed since the Korean War began in 1950. Kim Il Sung had also been discussing the possibility of the TKR-TSR project with Japan, Russia, China, South Korea, and the United States.

Kim Il Sung died in July 1994 and the aforementioned nations finalized a memorandum of understanding with his son Kim Jon Il in October 1994 called "The Agreed Framework". The Agreed Framework commits the U.S. and the DPRK to do the following:

• Cooperate to replace the DPRK’s graphite-moderated nuclear reactors and related facilities with 1000 megawatt light-water reactor (LWR) power plants for producing electricity. 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil will be delivered by the U.S. at no cost to North Korea to facilitate their energy needs during the transition. The U.S., South Korea, and Japan setup the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) to implement the Agreed Framework. The KEDO charter members agreed that South Korea and Japan would pay the $4 billion for the LWR.

• Move toward full normalization of political and economic relations.

• Work together for peace and security on a nuclear free Korean peninsula. DPRK agreed to unannounced inspections of its nuclear program to insure compliance.

• Will work together to strengthen the international nuclear non proliferation regime.

North Korea violated the Agreed Framework almost immediately after it was signed. Heavy fuel oil was diverted its intended purpose and sold in the black market. North Korea continued making counterfeit U.S. currency. IAEA inspections were constantly interrupted by North Korean officials. North Korean submarines were trespassing South Korean coastlines which delayed the construction of the Kumho LWR Site. The DPRK launched a ballistic missile over Japan.

Fearing a breakdown in the TKR-TSR project due to North Korea's non compliance, in October 2000 Secretary of State Madeline Albright (in the Clinton Administration) went to North Korea to reassure Kim Jon Il that the regional partners in the TKR-TSR project remain committed to the Agreed Framework so that the economic cooperation can proceed. There is no record that Albright pressured Kim Jon Il to stop his violations.
Albright could not get North Korea to "expose" itself to the required scrutiny necessary to become an economic ally. The biggest issue, which can bee seen by satellite is the fact that the DPRK's electrical grid barely sustains its capital - proof that it is not trying to expand its energy resources to facilitate the TKR-TSR project.

Meetings were held in Pyongyang to discuss South Korea's possible supply of electrical power to the North. Talks broke down over demands by North Korean negotiators to tap South Korea's power supply quickly, and to strictly limit South Korean access to North Korea's energy industry. In previous talks, North Korea had offered to have South Korea conduct an energy survey of Pyongyang. South Korean negotiators cited concerns about power sharing costs and said it would need to conduct a more complete study. Seoul also wanted to carry out a study of its own energy industry before deciding how much electricity it could spare. South Korean officials estimate it would take four years and $630 million to build new power lines across the border. As an alternative, Seoul is reportedly considering giving North Korea surplus coal for its thermal plants.

In February of 2001, The Bush Administration expressed it dissatisfaction with North Korea's actions. To try to calm Kim Jon Il's paranoia of a U.S. attack, after the attacks on 9/11 the Bush administration wanted to formerly agree with North Korea to do the following:

• Both Koreas, China, and the United States to finally sign a peace treaty to end the 1950-53 Korean war.

• North Korea must pull back 500,000 troops from the DMZ—as the Bush Administration has been loudly demanding;

• North Korea must to open its economy and allow large-scale investment by South Korea and allied nations.

• North Korea must sign agreements regulating transport of people and goods across the Trans-Korean Railway, allowing increased freedom for its citizens.

Kim Jon Il got the offer he wanted but was not willing to complete North Korea's political obligation for getting what he wanted. So by early August of 2003 he pulls North Korea out of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NNPT) believing that by doing so, the regional partners would be more willing to just continues the economic partnership without forcing North Korea to the Agreed Framework.

By late August of 2003 the Six regional parties convened in China to pressure the DPRK to go back to both the NNPT and the Agreed Framework. The DPRK resisted the requests and demanded to speak only to the United States. When the U.S. refused, the DPRK apparently tested a nuclear weapon. Kim Jon Il believes that if he were to "go nuclear" as he apparently did then he can force the United States to negotiate with him directly. Unfortunately, all Kim Jon Il did was further distance the DPRK from the world and increased the possibility that all of the region will be "nuclear tipped"

Until the DPRK set off an apparent explosion (against the wishes of the world - especially China) it was thought that China had considerable leverage over North Korea. China thought that they could convince North Korea that the TKR-TSR would give them the finances to be a more modern independent communist nation. Realizing that it is not the reality, DPRK's action has done more to raise concern of instability on Korean Peninsula and made the fruition of the TKR-TSR less of a reality. No longer is the discussion about the TKR-TSR, it is now about a dictator feverishly pursuing nuclear weapons.

This apparent test has created an added problem. Kim Jon Il knows that China is horrified that if he is deposed, his replacement would be worse than him. So Kim Jon Il took the aggressive posture and "apparently" tested a nuclear bomb. The problem is that he has cut himself from any "regime stabilizing" foreign assistance except the Chinese. Others in the region to consider going nuclear. If Kim Jon Il had not been paranoid and accepted the terms offered by the United States and completed the TSR-TKR, then he would be an economic power player in the world. Now he must be concerned about those in his government who are angered by his actions and are willing to pursue a regime change.

Why did Hamas and Hezbollah attack Israel in the Summer of 2006?

Note:

This is a long posting. However, this is just a synapsis of the real Hamas and Hezbollah's attack on Israel.

To halt the pursuit of U.S. and western companies for potential dominance of the exploration and transport of oil, gas, and water from the Middle East, Eurasia, and the Mediterranean to the western countries and Asia. Hamas and Hezbollah are financed by Iran and Syria (with the support of Russia and China) to be military satellites on Israel's northern and southern ends to keep Israel from being the "unquestionable point country" in the worldwide oil industry. Hamas launched their attack on June 25th 2006 and Hezbollah launched an attack on July 12th 2006. Hamas and Hezbollah were used in the same manner as countries were once used during the Cold War. Syria and Iran thought that by militarily forcing Israel to the negotiating table, Russia, China, Syria, and Iran could convince Israel and western nations to redesign its oil pursuits in the Middle East, Eurasia, and the Mediterranean.

Ever since Israel has been a country, western nations had planned to make Israel the "point country" in the Middle East, Eurasia, and the Mediterranean for the transport of oil, gas, and water to the western world. Those plans were constantly redrawn in order to address current events in the region. Technology and the evolution of times has finally made these plans feasible for execution.

Ever since oil replaced coal as the most important natural resource for supremacy in the 1870’s. Even if the United States no longer used the oil derivative gasoline for commercial use, we would still need to compete to control it. The reason is that there are over 6000 other products (from aspirin and plastic to rubbing alcohol and vaseline) are made directly from crude oil. The “first world” will always need oil derivatives to stay modern and there is no viable alternative that can be grown or produce synthetically that can replace its use.

The current strategy of the U.S. is to compete for access to Caspian Sea oil with the least amount of exposure to instability. Western nations and companies have organized various consortiums to build a global oil infrastructure that will make that access safe and profitable. The supreme construction within that infrastructure is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) Pipeline.

The BTC Pipeline is the 1000 mile oil and gas transport pipeline built buy western oil companies to travel through western friendly nations in the Middle East, Eurasia, and the Mediterranean. The former Soviet Union (USSR) once controlled the Caspian Sea Region for its oil and gas until the Soviet Government collapsed in 1989. Nearly all of the former Soviet Union's energy resources came from the Caspian Sea and it took over other nations in order to have both exclusivity in the Caspian Sea region for oil and gas as well as transportation routes from different parts of the Caspian Sea to “Mother Russia”. Ever since the Soviet collapse, the U.S., Israel , and Western Europe have been establishing diplomatic relationships with former Soviet satellite governments to establish trade for Caspian Sea oil and gas. The BTC Pipeline is the first pipeline built in the Caspian Sea region that is not controlled by “Mother Russia”.

The BTC pipeline connects the Caspian Sea with the Mediterranean Sea without the need for Russia or Iran. The BTC Pipeline connects pipelines from Iraq (i.e the Kirkuk-Mosul-Haifa Pipeline) and Turkey (in Ceyhan) directly to ports and pipelines in Israel (Haifa, Ashkelon, and Eilat). These connecting pipelines that traverse Israel allow for oil to goto the Red Sea without having to travel by boat through the increasingly inefficient Suez Canal. The BTC Pipeline eliminates the need to do business with Russia and Iran for nearly all major markets for the production and transport of oil out of Eurasia. Chinese companies now have to do more business with the United States and Israel in order to get the best price and security for transport routes for oil and gas. This is why the Bush Administration is not concerned about our deficit or the national debt.

The BTC Pipeline will replace the necessity of Russia for its oil and access routes, Iran's oil and ports, Syria's ports, and China’s investments in oil infrastructure. China tried to curb it’s financial exclusion that was caused by the BTC Pipeline by purchasing U.S. oil company Unocal. The bid was lost to U.S. based Chevron who at the time had no investment in the BTC Pipeline. China was furious.

Here is a 2006 snapshot of the state of affairs of nations who are supporting Hamas and Hezbollah:

China has huge appetite for oil and natural gas. China is 60 years late getting into the oil and gas industry, so they are setting up corporations that partner and purchase various interests in order to import oil and gas. China cannot get access to the most current technology necessary to produce more of its own oil or import oil from places other than the middle east and north africa because of U.S. and ally trade restrictions with Communist governments. Over 25% of China's oil is transported by oil tanker which makes their imports vulnerable to Piracy. Since their imports are going up exponentially, their costs for importing oil are unsustainable in the long term. China wants relationships wherein they can import oil and gas by pipeline which is a fraction of their normal import costs.

Russia reportedly has more oil than Saudi Arabia. However Russia's proven reserves are only 8th in the world have been in decline due to their lack of technical expertise to do adequate exploration and drilling to supply the growing energy needs of the world. The former Soviet Union built a network of transport routes that went nearly exclusively through Russia from the former Soviet satellite Republics and its crown jewel of energy, the Caspian Sea. The Russian economy is still heavily dependent on the import of oil and gas from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan for re-export to the rest of the world.

Iran has major problems with its oil industry. 80% of the Iranian economy is in the oil industry. Since the entire oil infrastructure in Iran is American made, U.S. sanctions have prevented Iran from upgrading its refineries to increase production. The inability to increase production limits Iran's ability to do very many large export deals. Consequently, nearly all oil and/or gas deals with Iran requires the importing nation to help develop Iran's oil fields. Iran's importers are also dissatisfied with the fact that has too few land based pipeline routes. The few it has access to belong to Russia. Most of Iran's oil is transported by tanker. Iran's importers feared the loss of their tankers due to piracy, general problems at sea, and interference by other nations (i.e. the U.S.) for entering unauthorized shipping routes. So importers look to other countries in the middle east countries for larger and longer contracts for oil. Iran tries to be more attractive by lowering its oil prices, and offering insurance to compensate for any threats to tanker traffic in the Gulf, and also extend credit as an incentive. Despite these special offers, some of its customers still turn to the Middle East. Iran is also a net importer of about 40% of its gasoline consumption. This is about 7 million gallons per day with a total cost of $5 billion per year. Iran's gasoline is heavily subsidized so that its consumer price is about 40¢ per gallon in order to avoid any democratic revolution. Once again U.S. sanctions have made it less expensive to import gasoline than it is to try to produce it in-country.

Syria makes hundreds of millions each year in what are called "transit fees". These are fees paid to Syria by oil companies and countries for transporting oil through pipelines that cross Syrian territory. Although Syria does have domestic oil production AND it represents nearly 60% of its foreign exports, it still does not have enough investment and technology to have the production levels needed to sustain the Syrian economy. Transit fees allow Syria to both import adequate amounts of oil and gas as well as receive Also Syrian laws do not allow for adequate expansion of its own capital markets to diversify from such a large dependance on oil.

The BTC Pipeline eliminates other issues of oil and gas transport issues such as building oil tankers with capacity to deliver requisite amounts of oil to places where it is needed. Many of these “supertankers” are are bottlenecking at too many ports and ocean routes to continue to be prosperous and safe for importers. They are also too large and/or too dangerous to go through routes such as the Suez Canal in Egypt and the Dardanelles & Bosphorus Straits in Turkey. Furthermore, it would be too expensive and time consuming to revert back to smaller tankers. Another problem with oil tankers is that too many tankers are being threatened by pirates, encountering problems at sea, or are interfered with by other nations for accessing unauthorized shipping routes.

Putin was active in trying to kill the BTC Pipeline projects. Putin surmised correctly that transit fees and taxes paid to the Russian government would significantly decrease of the BTC Pipeline is built. Se Putin lobbied President Bush to support the indefinite postponement of the BTC Pipeline and to instead expand on the Baku-Grozny-Novorossiisk Pipeline. This Pipeline went from Baku, Azerbaijan at the Caspian Sea in Novorossiisk, through Grozny, Chenya, to Russia at the Black Sea. At the time Baku-Grozny-Novorossiisk Pipeline was the only functioning pipeline out of Azerbaijan. It provided only 5 million barrels per year, but could be modified to produce what the BTC was expected to produce. U.S. agreement to use the Baku-Grozny-Novorossiisk Pipeline would be a huge boost to tax collections and transit fees to the Russian government as well maintain its national security. So immediately after the 9/11 attacks, Putin called President Bush to pledge his support for responding to the the 9/11 attacks at their base in Central Asia.

Part of the Baku-Grozny-Novorossiisk Pipeline goes through Chechnya, where the Chechen Rebels are considered terrorists on the level of Al Qaeda to the U.S. Putin thought that if the U.S. would sign on to the Baku-Grozny-Novorossiisk Pipeline, the agreement would that the U.S. would by default join Russia in eliminating Russia's terrorist problem as the U.S. also eliminates it own terrorist problem and obtain security for the transport of oil, gas, and water from the Caspian Region.

Putin also knew that Russian Billionaire Mikhail Borisovich Khodorkovsky, CEO of Russia's largest Oil Company, Yukos, intended to buy control of Russia's oil and gas pipelines and then sale Yukos to western oil companies. Putin didn't have a problem with the arrangement as long as transit fees and taxes paid to the Russian government continued to flow and grow. It would have been seen as a significant leap into capitalism and free enterprise by Moscow.

However when the Bush Administration stayed committed to the BTC Pipeline and informed Putin that the U.S. would be withdrawing from the ABM Treaty, Putin was outraged. Putin was also infuriated when he found out that U.S. Green Berets were sent to the Republic of Georgia to train the Georgian Army on how to secure the country against "western recognized" terrorists and make the country safe for western trade and investment.

So in retaliation, the Putin Administration charged, tried, and convicted Khodorkovsky, of tax evasion and sentenced him to 9 years in prison for fraud. The U.S. was then outraged. These series of "tit-for-tats" continued Between the U.S. as played out in the United Nations, the Israeli Palestinian conflict, and of course the Hamas and Hezbollah attacks on Israel.

Russia's largest customer is the European Union (EU). The European Union (EU) currently receives 30% of its oil and 50% of its gas from Russia. The BTC Pipeline will cripple that relationship. The EU will now be able to diversify its oil and gas imports, which will harm Russia financially. The EU-Russia energy relationship is also the principle reason why the EU will not list Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.

Iran's largest importer is Japan. Japan's investment in the BTC pipeline will definitely compromise Iranian petrodollars coming from Japan. Iran's desperate efforts to acquire the latest oil technology and to sell oil will be further restricted.

China is heavily invested in Iran and Russia. The BTC pipeline will limit China's ability to profit from those investments beyond importing oil and gas for its own consumption. The BTC Pipeline decreases the need for western nations to do business with China for access to oil and gas. The BTC Pipeline and its future connecting pipelines allows western friendly nations to do business cheaper and thereby decreasing the value of China's Investments.

Syria is losing tens of millions of dollars each month in transit fees. Recovering from this grave loss requires Syria to make some decisions...either join the western nations in the pursuit of oil and gas or remain allied with Iran, Russia, and China.

When Hamas and Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel, the world thought that it was just a lingering dispute over historical land. This land has been fought over for centuries, but this time oil and oil infrastructure is what they are fighting over, not just not just Allah versus Elohim.